Future Planning

Introduction

Future planning is a key part of football management, and vital to building and maintaining success. There have been a lot of good articles and blogs about squad planning and management, such as this excellent post by furiousuk on Squad Balance, but I think my take is a little different.

Rather than looking at squad balance in this piece (which is vital and will be covered later) I’m looking instead at how to build up your next first eleven. While a lot of people will tell you that they don’t have an exact first eleven, or a single best team (and I’m sure they mean it) I find the idea of a first eleven very useful for a development term, it helps you to think about the relationships and partnerships you want to build between players going forward, and rather than focussing your development on players as individuals, you can focus on them as part of a future team, a tactic which I think yields greater results.

So, when planning for your future team, the first place to start is your current team. I’ll be using my current Chelsea first eleven in the 2014/15 season as a starting block.

The Formation:

Here’s the tactic I’ve developed over my first few seasons at the club, and overall I’m very happy with it. It creates a pretty solid defence and an attacking style that focuses on bringing out the best of the striker and the players around him. I love this shape as it gives you a lot of options, you can have a lot of different kinds of players who will all find some sort of place in this formation if they’re willing to work hard. I’m happy with this tactic for my current team, and ideally I’d like to keep this as a base for my future eleven.

First Eleven – 2014/15

This was my first eleven as of the start of the 2014/15 season (screnshots taken at the end of the season)

GK: Petr Cech
DR: Cesar Azpilicueta
DCR: David Luiz
DCL: John Terry
DL: Ryan Betrand
MCR: John Obi Mikel
MCL: Frank Lampard
AMR: Oscar / Ramires
AMC: Juan Mata
AML: Eden Hazard
ST: Romelu Lukak

Now obviously you’ll notice there are twelve players here. That’s because Oscar is often injured and Ramires has played enough games that I think of the two of them as both first eleven players. While everyone else was fairly cemented as the first choice player in their role at the start of this season, that right wing role is the only one I expected to be a rotational role this year, and so it proved to be. Other players have no superseded some of those in this team, but this was certainly my best team at the start of the year.

So one thing you’ll notice is that quite a few of these players are in their late 20’s or early 30’s. Lampard is in fact retiring at the end of the season, and he lost his place as first choice after a bad injury in the middle of the season, so that was a change that was made quite quickly. The other players are still more than capable of remaining first choice in their respective positions, so some people may think it’s a little early to be planning for the future, but in FM you can never plan too early. I like to look at a five year cycle, looking at exactly where these players will be in their careers in five years. Here’s what you get when looking five years in advance:

First Eleven 2014/15: Where will they be in 2019?

GK: Cech – 37 years old, he’ll definitely be in the decline, but can play on as a backup
DR: Azpilicueta – At 29 years old Azpilicueta will still be able to hold down a first team place, provided he’s still the best player in his position at the club
DCR: Luiz – He’ll be 32 and so will be beginning his decline. Chances are he won’t be first choice, but he’ll still have a role to play as a rotational player
DCL: Terry – At 38, he’ll probably have retired or soon to be retiring. He’ll be retained because he’s a legend, but he’s in need of replacement sooner rather than later.
DL: Bertrand – Already the weakest member of the first eleven, Ryan will be replaced as first choice, but could still hold onto a role as a rotational player. He’ll still be at the club and in the first team fold in five years
MCR: Mikel – 32 isn’t a bad age for a holding midfielder, but Mikel is a player who already lacks pace, and that could be really exploited as he ages. What he will have however, is experience, and so while I’ll need a pacey alternative for some games, he should still offer a good option
MCL: Lampard – Frank will be retiring at the end of this season, so a replacement is already in place
AMR: Oscar and Ramires: Oscar will be just 27, so there’s no need for a replacement here, he’ll be in his prime. Ramires however will be 32, and his main strength – his physicality – will be starting to decline. Therefore I’ll need someone with pace and power to backup Oscar in the future
AMC: Mata – He’ll be 31, which is a fine age for an AMC, but it won’t hurt to have players pushing him and ensuring he stays on his game. His natural fitness is fine, so he shouldn’t decline too quickly, but I will look at bringing through players to challenge him for his position in five years time.
AML: Hazard – At 28, Hazard will be at his peak. No need to worry about this position for some time.
ST: Lukaku – Lukaku will just be entering his peak at 26 years old, so I don’t need to worry about him at all.

So the first thing I like to do is look for players who will offer like-for-like replacements, who can come in and do as well as those who will be leaving. Because of the analysis I’ve done above, it’s clear that I’ll need to look urgently at GK, DCL, MCR, MCL, and AMR. These are positions that will definitely need players in the next five years.

However, if you’re looking to build a successful team, you need to make sure you’re not just replacing those that are on the way out, but look at if you can improve on what you’ve already got. By looking five years in advance, you can mould these players and help them develop relationships and partnerships with those players you know you’ll need, meaning by the time they step up to the first team, they’ll be completely ready to challenge for a role. They’ll also be used to your tactics and won’t have problems gelling into the squad.

So, here’s my plan moving forward:

• Look for replacements for players in the positions that are most needed
• Look for players who could displace those that won’t be declining or retiring
• Sign these players for as little as possible when they’re as young as possible, to enable me to mould them into a unit.

Looking for Players

Where do you look? Well, start with your own youth team. I have a transfer policy in which I’ll sign every top class youngster I can get my hands on as quickly as possible. I may not be able to turn every one into a first team superstar, but I should be able to develop them into useful players or sell them for profit. If I can’t find any in my youth teams, I’ll start specific searches, limiting myself to players that are under 19 years old. This way I’ll have plenty of time to mould them, after all, for most players I’m not looking to replace them right now, I’m looking to bring a player through who’s capable of replacing them in the future.

I’ll do a separate post on how I search for players at some point, but this is more about how to analyse your squad and what to do with the players you’ve got. So, here’s what I’ve come up with.

Future Eleven – 2019/20

GK: Niall Selby
DR: Cesar Azpilicueta / Billy Britton
DCR: Graeme Bracken
DCL: Scott Devonshire
DL: Luke Shaw
MCR: Nathanel Chalobah / Lea Ashton
MCL: Josh McEachran / Lewis Baker
AMR: Oscar / Keith Derry
AMC: Garry Pettigrew / Antonio
AML: Eden Hazard
ST: Romelu Lukaku / Lewis Lincoln

This is what my first eleven could look like in 2019/20. This is reliant on me keeping with the same tactics, suffering no serious injuries to young players, and having no problems keeping hold of those I want to retain.

So what do we notice here? Well firstly all of these players except one are already with my club. The exception is Antonio, a quite brilliant attacking midfielder that I found when looking for someone who could challenge Mata. Antonio will be joining when he turns 18, and I’ll monitor his progress until he arrives. Other than Antonio, these players are all already at my club as a result of my youth-orientated transfer policy. This policy has meant that I can simply delve into my own squad and pick out those that would most easily fit into my current eleven when required.

You’ll also notice that in some positions I have more than one player. This is just good sense as while star ratings and general knowledge are good indicators of how well a player will develop, there are no certainties, and never hurts to have more than one option when looking into the future, in case a player doesn’t turn out the way you’d hope, or he gets an injury.

You’ll also notice I’ve got players in that Future Eleven in place of some players who I hadn’t planned on replacing, such as Ryan Bertrand, Juan Mata and Azpilicueta. That’s based on my belief that these players will be better than the current options by the time this season comes around. All of this is subject to the development of these players and how the current options perform or retain their attributes, but if current trends continue, these youngsters should be better than their counter parts.

Finally, you’ll notice that Hazard, Lukaku and Oscar have remained in the first eleven. Derry comes in to replace Ramires as Oscar’s main competitor, but I expect Oscar to retain his first team spot. I have not yet found anyone who matches Hazard in terms of the attributes required for an Inside Forward, and as he’ll be in his peak in the 2019/20 season, I have no worries about him continuing as my first choice player in this position, but I’ll keep an eye out in case I have problems with his contract or he gets injured.

Lewis Lincoln offers an interesting challenge. He’s home grown and already looks a fantastic prospect, but I have Lukaku, and he’s not exactly a like-for-like replacement. So what to do? Well, my current plan is two fold:

1. Have Lincoln ready to rotate with Lukaku in my current formation
2. Create a secondary formation that could be used with two strikers, to get the best out of the options I’ve got.

Transitions and Changes

So once you’ve identified the players you want to replace your first teamers, you need to look at the work that needs to be done to make sure they are ready, and more importantly, the team is ready when the time comes.

Building Relationships and Partnerships

The first thing I look at once I’ve identified the players I want, is the partnerships I want to create. What are the partnerships I want to develop? How do I want these players to complement each other? How does this work within my current setup?

I’ll give you two examples of how this could work in my current setup

Devonshire and Bracken

These two players represent the heart of my defence and I need them to develop a strong partnership. The first thing I’ve got to do is make sure thy complement each other in terms of their attributes. That means training each of them to cover for the others weaknesses. So Bracken will look to improve his already decent pace, to cover for Devonshire’s relative lack of it, while Devonshire will look to improve his aerial ability, as Bracken isn’t the best in the air. This will be done in two stages, firstly each player looks to try and improve upon their own weaknesses, to make sure that no matter what their partner does, they won’t have any fatal flaws. Then they’ll look to maximise their own strengths and counter the weaknesses of their partner. The resulting partnership should be Devonshire as a dominant, physical stopper who wins things in the air and takes charge of situations, with a pacey, intelligent Bracken covering behind him and mopping up the situation on the last line of defence. So that’s their attributes.

Then there’s the formation – does my current formation play to their strengths? Generally I’d say it does, but I want to make one change which could have repercussions. I want to move Bracken to the DCL position, and Devonshire to the DCR position. This is because of their respective preferred feet, and I like to see my centre backs using their outside feet when facing away from goal, as I think this leads to a more forward looking approach, and gives them the ability to cover for their closest fullbacks.

The knock-on effect of this is that I’ll need to change the balance of my midfield. I don’t want a Stopper with a Ball Winning Midfielder in front of him, it’s too aggressive and leaves too much space in behind. I prefer the cover Centre Back and BWM to form a partnership, as I think it makes a better use of the space and ensures that there’s adequate cover in every position, and each player has a designed space in which they have to defend. So a change is needed.

The Central Defenders and Central Midfielders will switch positions, with the left hand side becoming my Cover/Ball Winning Midfielder combinations, and the right hand side having the Stopper/Deep Lying Playmaker. Hopefully this won’t change the combinations involved in our attacking play, but it could help improve the defensive side by building a solid partnership at the back. If all goes well, then by the time these two players are playing together regularly in the first team, they should be able to perfectly compliment each other, in a system designed to bring the best out of them.

Lukaku and Lincoln

My current formation only has one striker. But I think that Lukaku and Lincoln could develop a great understanding together in a few years, and could give me another option. Lukaku has great aerial presence and physicality, whereas Lincoln is a highly intelligent footballer who could both create and score goals alongside a big Target Man. Therefore, I want to give myself the option of playing two up front, which means developing a new formation that I can have in my pocket for the right kinds of games in the future.

So I need to look at how to develop these players to compliment each other, and how to develop a formation that should serve both well. Lukaku is already pretty much at his peak in terms of PA, but any extra development will be channelled into his physical attributes. Lincoln still has plenty of room to go, and his development will take two forms. Firstly, as with the Centre Backs, I’ll look to minimise his own weaknesses, mainly his jumping, so that if necessary he can replace Lukaku. Then I’ll look at improving his mental attributes and really boosting his Technique, which is quite weak right now but needs to improve to make up for the lack of Lukaku’s Technique. This way, I’ll have him in the shape where he can really compliment the strength of Lukaku with some intelligent link up play and finishing.

When to make the changes?

The question then is when do you make these changes? When do you switch players out, and when do you make formation changes that will affect your first team but should help boost your future team? My personal preference is to make formation changes as early as possible, to give your future team as long as possible to adapt to changes, and if you’ve got a good first team, they should have the ability to adapt to any changes. If you’re thinking of a completely new formation for your team (as I will be for a Lukaku/Lincoln Partnership) then you might want to create the formation now, and simply have it as one of the formations your first team and youth teams will train, before making the switch to using it in later season.

When to change players is really a decision you have to make on a case by case basis. Some players improve quicker than others, some decline at a slower pace, sometimes you’ll have injuries or transfer requests that will mean you have to fast track someone’s process, but if you do it right, then you should have well developed players ready to fit into systems that will maximise their impact.

The Results: My Future Team

Formation One:

Team:

GK: Niall Selby
DR: Cesar Azpilicueta / Billy Britton
DCR: Scott Devonshire
DCL: Graeme Bracken
DL: Luke Shaw
MCR: Josh McEachran / Lewis Baker
MCL: Nathanel Chalobah / Lea Ashton
AMR: Oscar / Keith Derry
AMC: Garry Pettigrew / Antonio
AML: Eden Hazard
ST: Romelu Lukaku / Lewis Lincoln

Formation Two

Team

GK: Niall Selby
DR: Cesar Azpilicueta / Billy Britton
DCR: Scott Devonshire
DCL: Graeme Bracken
DL: Luke Shaw
MCR: Josh McEachran / Lewis Baker
MCL: Nathanel Chalobah / Lea Ashton
AMR: Oscar / Keith Derry / Antonio
AML: Eden Hazard / Garry Pettigrew
STR: Lewis Lincoln / Keith Derry
STL: Romelu Lukaku

Conclusions

So with careful planning this is what I’ve come up with. I’ve got two formations I can proceed with, a large number of players who are ready to come through and take over from ageing stars, and some players who could come in and push those who are here and give me great competition. It’s not a short process, and this blog is just really an introduction and a case study, but I think it shows the benefits of what this planning technique can bring. I’ll post a second post once I get to that season to see if I’ve lived up to these ideas, but I hope this serves as useful blueprint moving forward in your own saves.